Share :

Download PDF :

Geopolitic Monitor (15 January 2025)

Eldaniz Gusseinov & Sardor Allayarov

Central Asia has become a key region in light of the Ukraine war. A number of external actors –the United States, Germany, France, Japan, India, Türkiye, among others– have started to engage with the region in various formats to expand their influence. Such evolution intensified competition to win the ‘hearts and minds’ of the Central Asian nations. The main reason for such a development is predicated on the belief that ‘Russia is losing its grip on Central Asia.’ Contrary to this argument, in 2023 various Central Asian nations, excluding Turkmenistan, were designated as ‘Putin’s Pals’ in an article from The Economist, which assessed diplomatic, military, energy, and economic factors. This argument deserves a thorough analysis to assess whether it reflects reality.

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, various analytical portals have published a significant number of materials arguing that Russia’s influence in Central Asia is declining. These narratives highlight that Central Asian leaders did not support Russia in the conflict and have expressed adherence to the sanctions regime.

Analysts suggest that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has significantly altered regional geopolitics, impacting Moscow’s standing in Central Asia. It follows that Central Asian nations have maintained a neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict, refraining from supporting Russia’s actions and choosing to comply with Western sanctions. This neutrality is interpreted as a cautious distancing from Moscow’s policies and reflects a decline in trust among Central Asian states. In response to Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine, these nations are actively seeking stronger relationships with other global powers such as China, Türkiye, and the West. The shift in alliances is perceived to diminish Moscow’s traditional role as the dominant power in the region, leading to a potential realignment of geopolitical influences.

Click for more