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Hetq (20 May 2021)

By Markar Melkonian

Much of what happens seems inevitable in retrospect, but not the martyrdom of our four thousand sons.  The 44-Day War has shaken delusional certitudes about Armenia’s foreign policy.  Now, too late, it is easy to recognize the errors that might have been averted.  They include: 

• Over-estimating the military capacity of the Republic of Armenia;
• Badly under-estimating the military capacity and battle-readiness of the Republic of Azerbaijan; 
• Discounting Erdogan’s willingness to challenge Moscow by intervening directly in the armed conflict;  
• Disregarding Armenia’s diplomatic isolation and vastly exaggerating--or just hallucinating--the willingness of the West to intervene on Armenia’s behalf;
• Dismissing, or ignoring entirely, the unanimous international commitment to the Madrid Principles, notably the first principle, “return of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabagh to Azerbaijani control,” as a prelude to discussing autonomy or self-determination for the Armenians of Nagorno Karabagh;
• Brushing off Moscow’s numerous and insistent reminders to Yerevan that security provisions of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) apply, in letter and in spirit, only to the U.N.- recognized territory of the Republic of Armenia, and not to Nagorno Karabagh. 

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